Sunday, 12 July 2009

Predictions 2009-10

Every year Blue Maniac and I have a competition where we predict the Premiership table, the ups and downs of the Football Leagues (with the exception of League Two), and the winners of the domestic and international cups. We use an unscientific yet workable scoring system (that I shan't begin to describe) and at the end of the season the winner buys the other one a curry. Blue Maniac won last year after two successive victories for myself. Let's take a look at this year:


Premier League

1) Man Utd
2) Chelsea
3) Liverpool
4) Arsenal

I think it's going to be pretty much 'as you were' at the top of the table. Man Utd's strength in depth, plus the cash from the Cristiano Ronaldo sale, will see their fourth successive title. The addition of Michael Owen will be a shrewd move and his link up play with Wayne Rooney will bring a lot of goals.

The influence of Carlo Ancelotti will see Chelsea regain their place as Utd's closest challengers, with Liverpool once again being also-rans. The scousers need to stop relying on Gerrard and Torres to win games, or else the title they so crave will continue to elude them. A lack of investment and a dearth of new ideas will see Arsenal continue to be a distant 4th to the top three.

5) Everton
6) Man City
7) Aston Villa
8) Tottenham

Consistency is the key for Everton who will hold on to fifth place and qualify for Europe once again, but holding on to Joleon Lescott will be a priority. The big defender is integral to the Toffee's success, not only defensively but by pitching in with a few goals too. Nouveau riche Man City will bring in enough talent to propel them up the league, but nowhere near to breaking into the top four. Cash can buy players but it can't buy a team.

Villa will look to build on last season when they started strongly but faded badly towards the end. The fickle Villa fans are getting on Martin O'Neill's back, claiming that he's taken them as far as he can. To them I would say: who exactly could take you further? Martin is one of the best managers in the country and his penchant for young, English talent will stand Villa in good stead.

Having Harry Redknapp in the hotseat will put Spurs in the position to push for Europe, his transfer policy of 'throw enough shit and see what sticks' usually provides plenty of flops but also a few genuine successes. If they prune the dead leaves (Bent, Bentley, Pavlyuchenko) and bring in some new blood they'll do OK.

9) West Ham
10) Bolton
11) Fulham
12) Sunderland
13) Wigan
14) Blackburn

The mid-table will look much like it always does. West Ham will do well under Zola and Clarke but a lack of funds will inhibit their ability to get any higher than 9th. Bolton have steadied under Gary Megson with their previous defensive frailties having been somewhat solved. Last year's surprise package Fulham will look to repeat their achievements and the experience and knowledge of Roy Hodgson should allow them to do so. Wigan and Blackburn are perennial Prem also-rans and I see nothing this year to think that this will change.

15) Stoke
16) Wolves
17) Birmingham
18) Portsmouth
19) Burnley
20) Hull

The relegation battle will be an interesting one this year. Stoke did superbly well last year and were a hair's breadth from a top half finish. The rest of the league is wise now to their physical style and throw-in heavy attack so they won't have the element of surprise in their favour. Despite that I see them finishing well above the drop zone.

New boys Wolves and Birmingham are investing heavily on success, with Wolves splashing £6.5m on Kevin Doyle and Brum shelling out £9m on unproven Ecuadorian Christian Benitez. This could be a risky strategy for both sides, but their last stints in the Prem were marked by a lack of investment and eventual relegation so their cavalier spending this time is understandable. Come the end of the season the existence of 3 worse teams will see them safe.

Those worse teams are Portsmouth, Burnley & Hull. Pompey have been flirting with disaster for a couple years now, and with the ongoing saga over their ownership unsettling the players they're destined for Championship football in a years time. Burnley, it's a shame to say, will have neither the money nor talent to compete in the big league so will drop out of the Prem after just a year. I genuinely hope I'm wrong here.

Hull will (and deserve to) be relegated. Despite a great start that saw them get wins over Arsenal and Spurs and draws against Liverpool and Everton they capitulated in the second half of the season. They were an abomination and survived by the skin of their teeth. Self-publicist Phil Brown will moan about everything except himself for the next 10 months until Hull are sent back from whence they came.


The Championship

Champions) Newcastle United
Runner Up) West Brom
Playoffs) Ipswich
Relegated) Scunthorpe, Barnsley & Plymouth

Despite the loss of Michael Owen and eventually several other key players I can't see past Newcastle for the title. The quicker their ownership situation is resolved and Alan Shearer installed as manager the better. The Toon will be a huge draw for any player so Newcastle will have no problem signing the players they need to return to the Prem at the first time of asking.

Archetypal yo-yo club West Brom will once again bounce back to the Premiership. They've managed to retain the core of their Prem squad and a few useful additions such as prolific former Swindon striker Simon Cox will fire them towards the top. New manager Roberto Di Matteo is unproven at this level but I think he has the natural flair to be a success. Only time will tell.

Ipswich have been languishing in the Championship for many years now without any hint of success, but I think this year may be their year. It's impossible to overstate the importance of Roy Keane, a manger who commands respect and loyalty and has experience of getting an underperforming team out of this division. I think automatic promotion is out of the question but a playoff win is well within their grasp.

Not much to say about the relegation picture except that I think Scunthorpe will struggle to deal with the step up from League One. Barnsley and Plymouth were shocking last season and I can't see anything to suggest that they won't be just as bad this year.


League One

Champions) Leeds
Runner Up) MK Dons
Playoffs) Norwich
Relegated) Exeter, Wycome, Carlise & Swindon

Leeds' torrid tenure in the third tier will finally come to an end this season. With a good young manager in Simon Grayson they have all the attributes to win the league, but only as long as they hold onto star men Delph and Beckford. The return of Paul Ince to the MK Dons should see them build on last year's success and see them promoted for the second time in three years. Norwich are the best equipped of the relegated teams to bounce back, but only through the playoffs. New boys Exeter and Wycombe will share the relegation spots with Carlise and Swindon, the latter of whom won't recover from the loss of Simon Cox.


The Cups

FA Cup) Liverpool
League Cup) Manchester City
Champions League) Chelsea
Europa League) Zenit St. Petersburg
World Cup) England
African Nations) Egypt

With the Premiership title beyond them Liverpool's best chance of success comes in the domestic cups. Benitez will be under pressure from the board and supporters to deliver silverware and I think it'll be their names on this year's FA Cup. Whilst I've stated elsewhere that Man City will win nothing I'm hedging my bets here and tipping them for the League Cup. Mark Hughes is another manager under pressure and realistically this is all they could win so Hughes will field his strongest eleven in each round.

After several years of being the nearly mean Chelsea will finally get their hands on the Champions League. I'd even go so far as to predict that they'll beat their old manager, and current Inter Milan boss, Jose Mourinho in the final. My hope for this year's trophy is that Man Utd face Real Madrid and destroy them, just to see Ronaldo's face. Truth be told I've completely guessed at the Europa League winners, opting for one of the Russian clubs. Mafia money goes a long way.

Obviously I've let my heart rule my head here but I'm tipping England for World Cup success. There is absolutely no doubt that we have good enough players, and we have one of the very best managers in the world. We just need our big names to perform and a heavy dose of good luck. If our qualifying games are anything to go by we should have no trouble scoring goals, we just need to make sure we've the right goalkeeper between sticks keeping them out.

I know very little about the African Nations as in past years I've found it to be unwatchable, but as Egypt have won the last two I'm taking the easy bet and tipping them for a third.

So there are my predictions. Hopefully this time next year I'll be celebrating an England World Cup win with a free curry.

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